Today we are going to look at Implied Team Totals, one of our favorite benchmarks when narrowing down our play pool. If you aren’t aware of Implied Team Totals, this is a simple calculation for figuring out how many points Vegas thinks a team will score based on the Spread and the Game Total.
For this to be most useful, we need to look at some historical data and understand how close the Implied Team Totals are to the Actual Team Scores.
Let’s take a closer look at the specific scenarios facing our teams this week (favored, home/away, size of the spread) and see how often other teams in that situation have gone Over their Implied Team Total.
I’m using 2014-2016 regular season data here:
ITE Ratio = Implied Total Exceeded Ratio – the percentage of teams in that situation (favored, home/away, spread+/-1) that have gone Over their Implied Total.
avg diff (w/O) = when a team in that situation has gone Over it’s Implied Total, this is the average number of points that they went Over.
avg diff (all) = for teams in that situation, the average point difference between their Actual Score and the their Implied Total (the higher, the more skewed to over).
Example of how to use this
MIA – It’s surprising that Road Teams around a 3.5 point underdog have gone Over their Implied Total 55.8% of the time, with an average Over of 8 points. Even when you include the times teams in this situation have gone Under their Implied Total, they are still averaging 1.25 points over the Implied Total. MIA’s pedestrian 21 point Implied Total will have your average fan looking for other options, but we know there is 55.8% chance of MIA actually scoring 29 points!