We have a very interesting slate in store for Week 3. We have 9 Home Dogs (10 if you count Jacksonville who are the Home team in London) leaving us with only 4 Home Favorites. Since Home Favorites generally provide us with the most consistent projections, we’ll have to be smarter about where to take our risks this week. Here are the guys that caught our eye early on.
Tom Brady (Home; -13.5 / 28.75) – Another week of Tom Brady and the Pats owning the highest implied total on the slate. Houston’s defense has been bad, they’ve not been good versus the Run or the Pass and surprisingly Watt, Clowney, and company have had trouble generating any sort of pass rush. The line opened at -13 and is already at -13.5, we wouldn’t be shocked if it went higher. The risk for Brady is this game could be out-of-hand by halftime.
Derek Carr (Road; -3 / 28.5) – Coming in just behind the Pats with 28.5 implied points, the red-hot Raiders travel across the Country to play the Redskins in DC. We typically shy away from West Coast teams playing on the East Coast, however, with this being the Sunday night game there is less of an adjustment than it would be for a 1:00 PM kick. The Redskins have been better vs the Run this year setting up a very juicy matchup for Carr. We think this game has Shootout potential written all over it.
Matt Ryan (Road; -3 / 26.75) – It is difficult to get a good read on the Lions’ defense. They played a terribly out-of-sync Cardinals team who lost their best weapon mid-game and a Giants team who has 5 subway turnstiles for Offensive Lineman. This week we’ll find out what they are made of. We believe this game has legit shootout potential and wouldn’t be surprised if Ryan goes under owned in this spot.
Cam Newton (Home; -6 / 26.5) – It’s no secret that Cam has not been good this year, something just doesn’t seem right with his shoulder. We’ve been accustomed to Cam giving us about 3 games per year where he throws for 300 yards, a couple TDs, and rushes for another TD (one of those such performances came against the Saints last year in NOLA). Could this be that week? It’s certainly plausible, but at this point I’d feel much better about using weapons instead.
Kirk Cousins (Home; +7.5 / 25.5) – Though we are couple weeks early for when Kirk usually starts to heat up (around week 5), but as mentioned in the Carr blurb, we believe this game could legitimately shootout so there’s plenty of interest here as a Home dog.
Matt Stafford (Home; +6 / 23.75) – The home dog side of our other potential shootout game.
Mike Gillislee (-13.5) – A TD hat trick is legitimately on the table.
Ty Montgomery (-8.5) – Insane usage rate. Bump if Cobb or Nelson out.
Ameer Abdullah (+3) – He was explosive on Monday and his performance happened too late to be factored into this week’s pricing.
Melvin Gordon (+3) – Running the ball is how to attack KC’s defense.
Christian McCaffrey (-6) – By far the best matchup, game script, everything, in McCaffrey’s young career.
Carlos Hyde (+2.5) – If you are playing the Thurs-Sun slate, have some Hyde shares.
Le’Veon Bell (-7.5) – Bell wants to be the highest paid skill position player in the League. He’s off to a slow start and is eager to remind us why he’s probably worth it.
Jay Ajayi (-6) – Cutler/Parker has been talked about as a sneaky GPP stack this week against the Jets. We aren’t ready to buy it, we believe the Fins would much rather shorten this divisional road game and ride their workhorse.
Cooks/Hogan – Cooks will have a monster game soon. We need to see who is going to be primarily covering him as he tends to under-perform against CB who can match his speed.
Cooper/Crabtree – Cooper is priced below Crabtree this week. This is amazing and shows how much luster Crabtree has stolen. Cooper has had problems with drops and his physicality seems lacking. The other part of this decision is what the Redskins decide to do with Josh Norman. Stay tuned.
Julio/Sanu – As mentioned we love the shootout potential here. Julio’s floor is probably lower than we like, but his ceiling in that dome is elite.
Benjamin/Funchess – We think Funchess could be a very interesting PPR play as he should be the one who soaks up most of Greg Olsen’s targets.
Tyreek Hill – If Jason Verrett is out again, which is looking likely, then Hill should have a fantastic matchup.
TY Hilton – He has a glorious matchup this week, you really couldn’t ask for better, the problem of course is if Jacoby Brissett can get him the ball.
Doug Baldwin – Assuming Russell Wilson has time to throw, you have to like his chances versus a rookie CB.
AJ Green – Another elite talent with a fantastic matchup, and again big questions at QB and OL. We think he’s going to be fairly chalky this week given his recent price reduction.
Dez Bryant – Dez continues his streak of playing against some of the top CBs in the game, this time drawing Patrick Peterson. However, that Arizona secondary has been terrible otherwise and they’ll find some ways to get Dez the ball.
Jeffery / Agholor – They’ve both been phenomenal this year, with Jeffery silencing his critics who say he couldn’t be a true #1. DRC has been good for the G-men but Eli Apple on the other side has been prone to giving up big plays.