DFS Final Week 3

The research is in the books, the injury report has been scoured, and we are ready to achieve DFS glory in Week 3.

QB:

Kirk Cousins: We don’t mind that Jordan Reed is unlikely to play, this could keep his ownership around the 5% mark which would be fantastic in this matchup. His price is a great value and it gives you a lot of lineup flexibility. We want to be overweight on the field here.  GPP target exposure: 30%

Matt Stafford: Our Vegas guru, Chef Zeke, thinks this game goes under so what was perhaps someone we’d look at having 50%+ exposure to is going to come down some. However, this is still a fantastic spot with the Falcons without their top pass rusher.    GPP target exposure: 30%

Aaron Rodgers: Rodgers has consistently put up fantastic fantasy numbers at home as a big favorite. We’ll aim to be around even with the field.  GPP target exposure: 15%

Drew Brees: Yes, he’s been kind of disappointing, however, look at the competition. He’s played a very, very good Vikings D on the Road and a NE team that is the odds on favorite to win the AFC. We suspect his ownership levels will be the single digits and we want exposure in that case, the upside is way too high. GPP target exposure: 15%

Jay Cutler: Chef Zeke thinks this game goes over and due to Jay’s propensity for throwing deep, we don’t need many attempts for a big day. He’s most likely going to be owned in the low single digits so we’ll take that risk and get some leverage on the field.                GPP Target Exposure: 10%

Punt option – Andy Dalton: Green Bay’s secondary has not been good. Cincy just fired their OC, and his QB coach is now in charge. We’ve seen teams rally and bounce back in those instances. He could be less than 1% owned and it’s not inconceivable that this game shoots out.


RB:

Jay Ajayi: You could go all-in here and if you are only playing a handful of lineups, we wouldn’t fault you for it. 100 yards a TD might be his floor in this matchup. We are going to way overweight here. GPP target exposure: 40%

Le’Veon Bell: At some point very soon he’s going to have a monster game. This Bears team is struggling on Offense and will give the Steelers great field position all day. His price has come down some to a very fair level for someone who has slate-high upside. GPP target exposure: 35%

Ty Montgomery: The usage rate is just too insane to overlook. He’s a PPR King who is a slightly better play on DK, where his ownership levels will likely be in the 25%+ range. We’ll stay about even with the field here. GPP target exposure: 30%

Christian McCaffery: This spot almost seems too perfect for McCaffery. We are going to roll the dice and pick and choose Cam’s weapons instead of Cam himself this week.      GPP target exposure: 20%

Kareem Hunt: You don’t want to be looking at the tournament leaderboards on Sunday night and again asking yourself, “Why didn’t I play more Hunt??” We’ll be slightly less or even with the field. GPP target exposure: 20%

Ameer Abdullah: This is counter to our Stafford play, and more in line with what Chef Zeke thinks will happen in this one with the Lions running to keep the ball away from Matt Ryan. GPP target exposure: 15%

Marshawn Lynch: This is purely matchup based, it’s really a terrific spot for Beast Mode. We have some game script concerns but there is multi-TD upside here. Better play on FD. GPP target exposure: 10%

Mike Gillislee: We honestly don’t see how the Texans score. The Pats could have a lot of short fields which means a lot of time in the Red Zone. He could do nothing because Belichick or he could have 3 TDs.  We want some exposure in case of the latter.            GPP target exposure: 10%

Chris Thompson: While it seems like the odds of CT having back-to-back monster games are astronomically improbable, with Fat Rob unlikely to play, we don’t think you can completely fade him in DK’s full PPR format. The projected game script is just too favorable for his skillset. GPP target exposure: 10%

Isaiah Crowell: Chef Zeke thinks Cleveland covers easily here, and if they do, it will be because Crowell had a big game. GPP target exposure: 10%

Punt Option – Joe Mixon: Basically everything we said about the Red Rocket applies here. Take a calculated risk that Ken Zampese sees what we all see, that Mixon is their most talented weapon behind AJ Green and needs 20-25 touches per game.  If that happens at 4.5K on DK and 5.1K on FD and less than 1% ownership, then you’ll be climbing up the leaderboards.


WR:

A.J Green: He might be somewhat chalky as he is a great value at his price and the Packers have no one who can guard him. He has 200 yards and 2 TD type upside.        GPP target exposure: 25%

Devante Adams / Jordy Nelson: With Cobb out, we’ll mix and match a little as both of these guys have fantastic upside today. GPP target exposure: 25%

Keenan Allen: A slightly better play on DK for the Full PPR. He’s a target monster vs a very vulnerable secondary. You could pivot with Tyrell Williams.                                      GPP target exposure: 20%

Tyreek Hill: With Varrett out again, everything gets shifted over in the Chargers defensive backfield and he’ll have the same favorable matchup in the slot that Jarvis Landry was able to exploit last week.  GPP target exposure: 20%

Kelvin Benjamin / Devin Funchess: We’ll continue our strategy of taking Cam’s weapons rather than Cam himself. KB has more TD upside. Funchess should be PPR gold as he absorbs Olsen’s targets. GPP target exposure: 20%

Terrell Pryor: Pryor said he’s going to dominate today.  I don’t know why, but we believe him. GPP target exposure: 15%

Michael Crabtree / Amare Cooper: We’ll likely settle around a 75/25 split here with more shares going towards Crab. He’s just the better WR right now, he’s getting the RZ targets, and he’s actually catching them.  GPP target exposure: 15%

Michael Thomas: This is the week Thomas breaks out of his mini slump to start the season. GPP target exposure: 15%

Julio Jones / Mohamed Sanu: Julio doesn’t have a great matchup vs Slay but to be real, he is matchup proof. Sanu is in a terrific spot.  GPP target exposure: 15%

Odell Beckham Jr.: The Giants are supposedly (finally!) making some adjustments to their offense to compensate for their complete lack of pass protection. OBJ should be fully healthy and we see a big week vs a very beatable Philly secondary.                         GPP target exposure: 15%

Desean Jackson: As we saw again with Martavis Bryant last week, the WR that is not being covered by Xavier Rhodes has big game potential.  GPP target exposure: 10%

Some other guys we like that we’ll use as Pivot/Punt plays:

TY Hilton, Chris Hogan, Emmanuel Sanders, DeVante Paker, Doug Baldwin, Tyler Lockett, Sterling Shepard, Nelson Anghlor, Ted Ginn (revenge!), any DET WR, and Eric Decker.


TE:

Travis Kelce: He is the focal point of this passing attack. If we pay up for TE, this will be the spot. GPP target exposure: 25%

Jack Doyle: Stream TEs vs CLE will be a theme for us all year. GPP target exposure: 25%

Delanie Walker: Seattle’s defense is beatable down the middle of the field.                   GPP target exposure: 20%

Zack Ertz: Janoris Jenkins looks like he might suit up which is terrible news for Alshon but great for Ertz’s target numbers. GPP target exposure: 20%

Jared Cook: We are expecting Cook to snag a TD in the shootout.                                       GPP target exposure: 10%

Some other guys we like that we’ll use as Pivot/Punt plays:

Eric Ebron, Coby Fleener, Antonio Gates


DEF:

We’ll be staying narrow at DEF this week. If at all possible, we’ll have either Pittsburg or New England everywhere.  You can use the Titans if you need the salary relief.


Good luck everyone!

Ryan Cooper

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